Successful paths to change

Resource conservation, zero net environmental loading, equity – these are the key objectives of the major changes facing us if we take seriously the limits to the carrying capacity of the Earth System, the welfare of all humanity and the idea of global, intergenerational justice.*

Many interesting niche sustainability solutions are already appearing, but they will only become mainstream, firstly, when the right conditions are put in place at the key points in the whole system. Secondly, people have to be convinced of the importance of sustainability – only then will it become part of everyday life: when shopping, at work or when managing or investing money.

For this to happen, it’s not enough to address the question “What should change?” by itself. It is precisely in times of radical change that the question “What are the main factors for succeeding with social changes?” is increasingly asked as well.

It is only when we understand social changes better that we can also shape them more successfully. To do this we can learn from both scientific enquiry and empirical experience. Societal upheavals are often so complex that simple assumptions about the relationships between cause and effect are useless. Too many players are involved, it’s difficult to survey the processes of change and it is not clear when events will happen. That is why attempts at change often fall short and decision-makers in politics, companies and other social movements don’t achieve the outcomes they hoped for.

Nevertheless, in order to be able to make sense of a confusing world and act within it, people want to understand how processes of change function and which influences operate. That is why the sciences develop explicit models, and ordinary people develop implicit ones as well. They help us to filter out the constantly recurring patterns from the tide of information on diverse processes of change and to align our own behaviour to them. Models provide orientation in a complex world.

Models differ not only within and between the individual scientific disciplines but also from person to person and between different cultures. The environment in which they are used affects the models as well, as do the underlying concepts of how society, organisations and individuals “function”.

Despite these differences, there are still common findings running through the scientific and empirical models, and key factors for success can be deduced from them. If these are given serious consideration they can smooth the paths to change (explored in detail in Kristof 2010a & 2010b).

* e.g. Rockström 2009, Jackson 2009, WBGU 2011, Daschkeit/Kristof/Lorenz/Veenhoff 2013