2024 Projection Report: Germany falling short of its climate targets
Climate protection: further efforts are needed
©plainpicture/ Elektrons08
Germany has set clear climate protection targets in the Federal Climate Change Act. Greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by at least 65 percent by 2030 and by 88 per cent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. Greenhouse gas neutrality is to be achieved by 2045. According to the current status of the measures adopted to reduce greenhouse gases, however, Germany is lagging behind this target. It is expected that Germany will almost achieve the targets by 2030 with a projected emission reduction of approx. 64 percent. Despite substantial progress, the 2045 target of greenhouse gas neutrality is not met. This is shown in the 2024 Projection Report, which Oeko-Institut has prepared with project partners on behalf of the German Environment Agency.
The scenarios of the 2024 Projection Report
The projection report applies two scenarios: the “with existing measures scenario” (MMS), which includes climate protection instruments that have already been implemented, and the “with additional measures scenario” (MWMS), which takes additionally planned measures into account. These scenarios should not be misunderstood as forecasts for the years ahead. Rather, models are used to generate long-term, plausible emission trends under the conditions and assumptions applicable at the time of modelling.
Different developments in the individual sectors
Different developments are projected in the energy, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture, waste management and LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) sectors.
In the energy sector in particular, considerable reductions are expected by 2030 as a result of the coal phase-out and the expansion of renewable energies. This means that the energy industry will no longer be the largest source of emissions in Germany from 2027 onwards. Industry also makes progress, primarily through new climate-friendly manufacturing processes, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and increasing energy efficiency. Its emissions will fall by 56 percent (in the MMS) and by 58 percent (in the MWMS) by 2030 compared to 1990.
The transport sector, in contrast, is proving to be problematic: in 2030, it has a growing emission gap of 180 and 176 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in the MMS and MWMS respectively. In both scenarios, there are approx. 11 million battery electric vehicles on German roads in 2030 – four million fewer than the target.
In the buildings sector, the targets are almost met, supported by the German Buildings Energy Act and an increased obligation to use renewable energies. In agriculture, the targets are overachieved due to declining livestock numbers, optimised fertilisation practices and methodological changes.
The researchers also carried out sensitivity analyses to examine the effects of changes in economic and population trends and fuel and CO2 prices, among others. These analyses show that different assumptions can have a substantial impact on the emission development.
