Quick phase-out of nuclear power is possible without power gap or price explosion

A quick phase-out of nuclear power in Germany offers opportunities for further progress in climate protection efforts, without endangering security of supply or excessively pulling on citizens’ purse strings. WWF Germany and Oeko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology) came to this conclusion on the basis of an analysis of the German power market.

“Our calculations show that both are possible – climate protection and the phase-out of nuclear power”, said Regine Günther, Head of Climate & Energy Policy Division at WWF Germany. “We have to take a new power supply path which eliminates man-made catastrophes today and in the future. Our proposal is on the table. Now the German government has to finally produce a coherent plan for nearly zero-carbon development without nuclear power by 2050,” said Günther.

Dr. Felix Christian Matthes, Research Coordinator at Oeko-Institut, has calculated an accelerated phase-out scenario for WWF. According to the scenario, the total installed net capacity of nuclear power plants in Germany – amounting to 20,500 MW in total – can be covered by other means by 2020.

“Complete decommissioning of nuclear power plants in Germany is possible by 2020. Ten nuclear power plants can be decommissioned immediately, with four additional plants being decommissioned by 2013 and the remaining three in the second third of this decade,” said Dr. Felix Christian Matthes. “The effects of the shutdown of nuclear power plants on the electricity price are very small. There will also be no dreaded “power gap” because there are sufficient alternatives.”

An accelerated phase-out path could look like this:
The permanent phase-out at very short notice of the seven oldest nuclear power plants in Germany and the Krümmel nuclear power plant in Schleswig-Holstein, which is not currently in operation, is made possible by the existing reserves of the power system. Two additional plants could be decommissioned very quickly by reactivating the mothballed capacities in the German power supply system. Four additional plants can be decommissioned by 2013 – in combination with load management measures and the start-up of power plants that are to be connected to the grid by 2013.

Through the construction of new biomass, CHP and other natural gas-fired power plants, three additional nuclear power plants can be decommissioned by 2020. Oeko-Institut’s calculations show that, in this way, a total of 21,000 MW could be generated without nuclear power by 2020. That is 500 MW more than the current total capacity of all German nuclear power plants.

Positive impetus for climate protection
Oeko-Institut and WWF Germany assume that such a change in the energy policy path can be a positive impetus for climate protection. The goal of keeping the increase in the global average temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is considered achievable, but industrialised countries would have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 95 percent up to 2050 compared to 1990 levels.
The WWF report “Blueprint Germany – A strategy for a climate-safe 2050” shows how this goal can be realised. In order to make progress in the transition from a climate-damaging to a climate-safe economy, well-targeted investments and promotion of innovations are needed in all areas.

Alongside power generation, additional key areas in which to take action are the buildings sector, road transport and industry. Without incorporating agriculture and land-use the ambitious climate goal cannot be achieved. “More ambitious climate policy has to cover all sectors,” says Regine Günther. “The ways that are assumed to be inexpensive today often prove otherwise in long run. We have to accomplish power supply in a way which eliminates man-made catastrophes.”

Together with a huge increase in energy efficiency, renewable energy sources are also of key importance in the “Blueprint Germany” scenarios. Renewables could comprise 83 percent of electricity production in Germany by 2050. To bring this about, smart grids, a huge increase in storage capacities and new market regulations are necessary.

Further information

Mandy Schossig,
Public Relations & Communications Department
Oeko-Institut
Tel:++49 (0)30-40 50 85 334
Email contact

Jörn Ehlers
Public Relations & Communications Department
WWF Germany
Tel: ++49 (0)30-311 777 422
Email contact