Climate impact of carbon credits is substantially overestimated

In a systematic assessment of more than 60 empirical studies, a new meta-study concludes that the actual emission reductions of the mitigation projects analysed are, on average, about six times lower than claimed. The study “Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects,” which was published today in the journal Nature Communications and in which Dr Lambert Schneider of Oeko-Institut was involved, reveals major shortcomings in the quality of carbon credits.

Limited climate impact of carbon credits

The mitigation projects analysed account for around a fifth of the credit volume issued to date – equivalent to almost one billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions. All project types, such as the avoidance of deforestation and the use of efficient cookstoves, have systemic quality problems. For some projects, such as improved forest management, no statistically significant emission reductions could be proven at all. Cookstove projects – in which conventional cookers are replaced by more fuel-efficient ones – only achieved around 11% of the emission reductions for which carbon credits were issued. In the case of the destruction of the potent greenhouse gas SF₆, the actual emission reductions amounted to only 16 percent of the claimed emission reductions.

Market reform urgently needed

Dr Lambert Schneider
Research Coordinator for International Climate Policy

There are many reasons for the overestimation of emission reductions. "The rules of the carbon crediting programmes often give project developers too much flexibility. This can lead to unrealistic assumptions being made or inaccurate data being used, resulting in an overestimation of reductions," says Lambert Schneider.

In projects destroying the waste gases hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)−23 and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) in industry, the data shows that waste gas generation increased when plant operators were able to generate carbon credits.

The carbon crediting programmes have a particular responsibility to improve the quality of the carbon credits. They should improve their approaches to assessing projects and calculating emission reductions. It is crucial that more conservative assumptions are made and that data based on the latest scientific evidence is used.

Analyses by the Carbon Credit Quality Initiative confirm results

Various initiatives are striving to improve the integrity of carbon credits associated with mitigation projects. Along with the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF-US), Oeko-Institut founded the Carbon Credit Quality Initiative (CCQI). The CCQI independently assesses the quality risks of various types of carbon credits. “The CCQI’s analyses confirm that the project types examined in the study have high integrity risks,” adds Lambert Schneider.

Meta-study in Nature Communications ‘Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects’

AI-supported policy guide: leveraging energy efficiency to combat energy poverty in the EU

News 11/07/2024

Oeko-Institut has published an innovative policy guide to combat energy poverty in the European Union. The guide places a particular emphasis on energy efficiency as a strategic lever for reducing energy costs and improving the quality of life of low-income households. It serves as a practical guide for policymakers and provides recommendations for implementing key legislative initiatives of the EU such as the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD).

Cost comparisons in international hydrogen trade: The PtX Business Opportunity Analyser (PtX-BOA)

Blog 10/02/2024

Hydrogen is high on policy agendas around the world. In Germany, the federal government adopted a hydrogen import strategy in July and long-distance transmission network operators are setting up essential infrastructure for a hydrogen transport network. Current estimates indicate that Germany will need to import 50 to 70 per cent of its hydrogen requirements in 2030.

New study on carbon storage: risks and recommendations for action

News 09/24/2024

In view of the urgent need to limit climate change, there is growing interest in technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A new study carried out by Oeko-Institut on behalf of the German Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union (NABU) sheds light on the challenges of the geological storage of CO2 (carbon storage, CS). It focuses in particular on the potential for storage off the coast of countries, known as offshore storage.

The human-made pool of materials

News 09/17/2024

The anthropogenic material stock in Germany alone holds an estimated 51.7 billion tonnes of material. It consists of buildings and infrastructures but also everyday goods that contain raw or processed materials, such as electrical and electronic equipment, vehicles and furniture. Urban mining aims to monitor and recover these resources. This not only eases the pressure on the environment and the climate; among other things, it also helps to reduce our import dependency. In the current issue of eco@work, we take an in-depth look at urban mining. We also cast a glance at Nigeria, where unsuitable recycling of lead-acid batteries is still causing major burdens upon people and the environment.

Share