Commercial vehicle manufacturers aim for broad-scale rollout of e-trucks

Road freight transport is the second-largest producer of CO₂ emissions in the mobility sector after passenger cars. A fossil fuel phase-out for commercial vehicles is therefore essential. A new report by the Oeko-Institut documents current views among commercial vehicle manufacturers and charging infrastructure experts on the shift in propulsion technology and the required energy supply infrastructure. From their perspective, battery electric trucks are emerging as the dominant technology in road freight transport.

The five commercial vehicle manufacturers surveyed – which together account for around 90 per cent of the European commercial vehicle market – are predicting a rapid market ramp-up and future dominance of battery electric trucks in road freight transport, anticipating a market share of more than 50 per cent of new registrations in 2030. In light of the advances in battery technology, a rapid expansion of e-truck usage to cover not only regional but also challenging long-distance routes is expected. The benefits offered by battery electric trucks in terms of operating costs favour their deployment in long-distance transport with high annual mileage and often make them as competitive as diesel-powered HGVs already. This is also the area of deployment in which the highest greenhouse gas emissions reductions can be achieved.

A charging infrastructure is the key prerequisite

The rollout of the required charging infrastructure for commercial vehicles is identified as the key factor determining the pace of the market ramp-up for e-trucks. It involves the electrification of company depots as well as the establishment of a reliable, broad-scale high-power charging network in the public space. The provision of grid connection capacities with the requisite scale and speed is seen as particularly critical in this context.

Ambitious climate policy is required: EU CO₂ fleet targets and CO₂ pricing as the key drivers of transition

According to the manufacturers, the European CO₂ standards for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, the increase in carbon pricing of fossil fuels and the CO₂-based truck toll are the key drivers of development dynamics and e-truck sales. Any weakening of these key frameworks would therefore pose the greatest risk to the e-truck market ramp-up.

Hydrogen-based drive technologies still in development

Simultaneously, all the manufacturers surveyed continue to participate in the development of hydrogen-based drive technologies for commercial vehicles. However, the large majority of manufacturers do not expect hydrogen-powered trucks to achieve commercial competitiveness in the mass market, instead mainly identifying niche markets and specialist applications as these trucks’ future areas of deployment. Only one manufacturer estimates the long-term market potential of hydrogen-powered trucks at between 10 and 20 per cent.

The transition can only succeed in cooperation with the transport industry

During the discussions, attention was drawn to the urgent need to support the transport industry, with its diverse business structures, in navigating the forthcoming shift to new drive technologies, with a focus on the challenges that the industry faces.

As part of the ongoing research project, which is funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action under its “Renewable Mobile” (Erneuerbar mobil) research programme, and with support from case study partners and the use of multiple standardised surveys of transport companies, robust data are being collected on users’ views and experience with alternative drive technologies. The findings will be published at a later date in similar project reports to provide a fuller picture of the transition in the commercial vehicle market from an additional key perspective.

Report “Electrification of heavy duty vehicles and development of charging infrastructure – future trends and recommendations for action from the perspective of vehicle manufacturers and charging infrastructure experts” by Oeko-Institut