Climate benefits of material substitution by forest biomass and harvested wood products: perspective 2030

The medium-to-long-term targets of EU countries to reduce GHG emissions rely on contributions by all sectors to the mitigation efforts. Harvested wood products ( HWP) form a significant pool of carbon in EU countries and their management has implications for emissions not only from forests, but also through substitution effects on other sectors. The objective of this study is to provide reliable data and analysis on the overall climate change mitigation potential associated with the use of forest biomass in the EU to substitute materials in products and to increase the carbon stock in HWP. To achieve a snapshot view and system understanding of the interplay between forest ecosystems (both within and outside the EU), the climate and the consumption of wood, this project conducts a comprehensive, life-cycle and scenario-based assessment of the GHG emissions from forest and wood biomass. The results of the impact assessment are integrated with the life cycle assessment results of the substitution effects of specific defined forest based functional units (FBFU). The combination of the two estimates and the comparison of illustrative scenarios offer insights not only into the orders of magnitude of substitution and carbon impacts on forests but also into impacts on trade and emissions outside EU borders. This is made possible by interconnecting several models: a partial equilibrium model (GLOBIOM), a forest carbon model (G4M), a wood products carbon model to trace and estimate the carbon stocks of HWPs (C-HWP) and a substitution model. The scenario results are analysed with regards to sustainability issues, the life-time of products, competition between forest products and substitutes, feedback loops and cascade effects for forest-based resources between different value chains and interactions with other sectors. A detailed policy analysis, closely linked to the quantitative assessment, will identify existing and future policies that could have a potential to decrease net GHG emissions over the full life cycle and could effectively and efficiently modify the flows of forest biomass and consumption patterns and thus maximise climate benefits from the production and use of forests and wood in the long term.