GHG projections: Further development of the methods and implementation of the European Governance Regulation and the German Federal Climate Change Act ("Policy Scenarios XII")

In international, European and national climate protection policy, it is necessary to quantify the future development of greenhouse gas emissions and the effects of existing and possible medium-term measures and instruments at regular intervals and to summarise them in consistent projections. In addition to the international and European reporting obligations, the amended German Federal Climate Change Act of 2024 (KSG-E) provides for the preparation of annual projections. The projections are central to the readjustment mechanism, which applies if the annual emission levels under the KSG-E are exceeded and serve as a guide for the federal government’s preparation of a climate protection programme.

Under the leadership of Oeko-Institut, the project consortium supports the federal government in preparing the 2025, 2026 and 2027 projection reports and in fulfilling the associated reporting obligations. Two scenarios are modelled in each reporting year: the ‘With measures scenario’ (MMS), which includes climate policy instruments deemed to have been adopted or implemented by a specified deadline, and the ‘With additional measures scenario’ (MWMS), which includes other instruments deemed to have been planned with sufficient certainty by the deadline.

A socio-economic impact assessment is also conducted in the project. To this end, the investment needs and energy and operating cost savings from the sector models are combined and evaluated in a system cost analysis with regard to the net effects. Based on this, a macro-economic analysis is carried out to determine the effects on GDP, gross value added and labour demand. In addition, a labour market analysis is conducted with regard to the demand for skilled workers and distribution effects and social aspects are evaluated on the basis of a microsimulation and an analysis of sample households.