Kopernikus project Ariadne - Evidence-Based Assessment for the Design of the German Energy System Transformation - Sub-project Sectoral Focus analysis heat transition: Identification and evaluation of instruments

Ariadne - The red thread through the energy transition

Climate targets alone are no guarantee of success. To achieve them, concrete measures must be taken. The project aims to show ways through the complex detailed issues of the energy transition. Decision-making problems in politics will be specifically addressed. In addition, debates with politicians, stakeholders and citizens will be initiated, as the energy transition can only succeed in a joint learning process. In this way, the project will develop target-oriented measures and options for policymakers.

Focus analysis heat transition:

The focus analysis on the heat transition is divided into a total of nine tasks. Oeko-Institut is involved in four of these tasks. Oeko-Institut's contributions will focus on the identification and description of instruments for building energy efficiency, as well as the evaluation of instruments in terms of robustness and target achievement, and the development of alternatives.

An analysis of the gaps in the heat transition and, derived from this, the identification of policy instruments to close them will be carried out. The instruments to be considered include further developments in regulatory law, fiscal instruments such as tax law and subsidies, information/advice, technology and industrial policy measures, and others - such as municipal energy master planning. The instruments are quantified and divided into three time horizons in terms of their impact:

1. short-term measures: 2020 – 2025, 2. medium-term measures: 2025 – 2035, und 3. long-term measures: 2035 – 2050.

In addition, an analysis and presentation of the legal implications of instruments in the heating sector is provided. Here, an impact network is developed in order to be able to evaluate the mutual influence of measures.

Furthermore, a final evaluation of the instruments is carried out with regard to their robustness, regulatory implementability, their embedding in the legal framework and target achievement, as well as the development of possible alternatives. As main products of the Focus Analysis Heat Transition, two reports will be written: 1. an "Analysis of Critical Paths of the Heat Transition and Options on Solutions in the Building Sector" as basis for the Green Paper, and 2. an "Assessment of Instruments for the Heat Transition in the Building Sector" as basis for the White Paper. In addition, two "Policy Briefs" and, if necessary, further policy briefs on important instruments, distribution effects, acceptance and digitalization are planned.

Detailed information about the project as well as publications can be found on the project website: https://ariadneprojekt.de/