Systemic challenges of Germany's heat transition

The study analyses measures and instrument sets aimed at achieving a nearly climate-neutral building sector by 2050. For this purpose, two target scopes are considered. Target scope 1 assumes a reduction of the non-renewable primary energy demand by 80 % compared to 2008, target scope 2 aims at a reduction of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Germany by 95 % by 2050 compared to 1990. Possible sets of instruments for both target scopes are derived from the measures in the form of roadmaps.

In the form of a risk and deficit analysis, the consequences of failing to implement certain measures (e.g. too low renovation rates or depths, failure to meet RE targets in the conversion sector (especially too low a RE share in electricity or district heating)) are worked out and to what extent these could be offset by compensation options, such as greater use of domestic RE heat, intensification of efficiency efforts or the import of RE (PtG or PtL). Furthermore, a focus analysis on the role of heating grids in the context of the heat transition is carried out.