EU effort sharing for the 2021-2030 period

The paper develops and evaluates different options for determining annual emission allocations by Member State under a new Effort Sharing Decision for the 2021 to 2030 period based on the conclusions of the European Council of October 2014. To do so, both the starting point as well as the end point of a linear target path need to be agreed upon. The individual 2030 targets by Member State do not affect the environmental effectiveness of the ESD as long as the overall EU target of 30% below 2005 levels in the non-ETS sectors is achieved. The question is therefore more an issue of fair allocation of the total emission budgets. In contrast, the choice of the starting point has the potential to change the total emission budget for the 10-year period by 5-6%.