Feasibility of sufficiency policy instruments. An assessment using impact chains for the German mobility sector

The transport sector is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. Rapid decarbonization of transport requires fuel switching and energy savings through modal shift and demand reduction – which are the aims of transport-sufficiency policy. We analyze passenger transport-policy instruments collected in the European Sufficiency Policy Database. Applying the concept of impact chains, we examine the ways in which proposed policy instruments function from cause/policy stimulus to effect/impact, with a focus on the factors relevant to the feasibility of policy implementation in Germany. This allows us to compare implementation feasibility by policy target and by instrument type. Based on our analysis of supporting factors, barriers, and risks, we find that policy instruments with many supporting factors also tend to have many barriers and risks. This is often the case with broad instruments that have diverse relevant factors. We observe that the policy targets “promotion of active modes” and “reduction of motorized individual transport” have the fewest risks because they tend to be less intensive in cost, material, and labor. Feasibility also varies between instrument types, with regulatory instruments unexpectedly showing the fewest risks and a similar number of barriers as economic instruments and as many supporting factors as fiscal instruments. This analysis enhances the understanding of which policies are easier to implement and how feasibility is interconnected with other instruments.